Bitcoin Bear Market: The Crypto Market Is slight recovery, the Bitcoin price is regaining the $20,000 territory. However, the long-term downtrend is not over yet. Major cryptocurrencies are still 80-90% below all-time highs.
Nonetheless, a growing number of arguments support claims that the period of decline and accumulation in the cryptocurrency market is coming to an end. BeInCrypto presents his three technical arguments suggesting that Bitcoin’s macro bottom has already been reached and a bullish trend reversal may be imminent.
Bitcoin Bear Market: Watch BTC Price Action
Bitcoin’s price has continued to fall since reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $69,000 on November 10, 2021. Since then, the price of BTC has fallen by 74.5%, hitting a low of $17,600 on June 18, 2022. Lasted at least 350 days.
Compared to previous cycles, we can see that Bitcoin’s decline so far has been more gradual than the last two Bitcoin bear markets. In 2014, the price of Bitcoin dropped 86% from his previous ATH of $1177. In 2018, the price of BTC dropped 84% to the previous ATH of $19,764.
Therefore, if the price of Bitcoin hits lows that match its historical declines, long-term support should be found in the $10,000 region (85% drop from ATH). Compared to its current valuation of nearly $20,000, this is another 50% drop, and its value will surely deepen. crypto winter.
fractal without low price
Recently, a number of charts and technical arguments have surfaced in favor of an alternative scenario and the imminent end of the Bitcoin bear market. One of them was posted by a user on his Twitter. @ nautilus capHis fractal analysis looks at a long-term logarithmic chart of the Bitcoin price, fitting past Bitcoin bear markets into a descending triangle pattern.
In all three cases there was a breakout from this pattern, leading to a short-term macro-bottom for BTC price. Analysts emphasize that no lows were generated during the accumulation period.
Additionally, this chart compares the current Bitcoin price (red line) with the scaled-up BTC price action in 2015 and 2019 respectively. During these periods, there has been a historic build-up at the bottom of Bitcoin’s bear market. Their correlations with today’s price action were 56% and 64%, respectively.
Comparing these fractals, it looks like the current accumulation could last about three more months before a bullish reversal begins.
3 Technical discussion
Another argument is provided by a chart tweeted by a user @eagle gorillaThis time, the monthly chart of Bitcoin and Bollinger Band Breakout Oscillator indicators are taken into account. This indicator measures her two series of breakout data between the extremes of price and Bollinger Bands. Bullish breakouts are represented by blue areas in the indicator, while red areas represent bearish breakouts.
In the analyst’s interpretation, the red chart seems to be flattening out. Historically, this has been correlated with the end of the Bitcoin bear market (red dashed line). The red area may still be dominant in the coming months. However, reaching the maximum level of the red breakout indicates an imminent change in trend.
Ultimate Oscillator Returns From Oversold Area
A final argument from the long-term Bitcoin price chart was presented on Twitter by analyst @StockmoneyL. He also used a weekly logarithmic chart of BTC price. He juxtaposes the historical Bitcoin bear market and the so-called Ultimate his oscillator upper and lower ranges.
Developed by Larry Williams, this indicator attempts to fix the deficiencies of indicators related to different timeframes. ultimate oscillator It does this using three different time intervals (7, 14, and 28) representing short-, medium-, and long-term market trends.the interpretation is RSI indicator. As such, analysts try to spot bullish and bearish divergences and pay attention to overbought or oversold areas.
In the chart below, we can see that the Ultimate Oscillator consistently hits extreme oversold values near the macro bottom of Bitcoin’s bear market. It then increased slowly during the accumulation period. A similar situation is happening now. @StockmoneyL therefore suggests that the end of the Bitcoin bear market is near (red area).
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