This is an editorial by Stephan Livera, host of the “Stephan Livera Podcast” and managing director of Swan Bitcoin International.
The 2022 chapter is over and it’s time to look to what will happen in 2023. Here are some themes I see for Bitcoin in 2023.
over-regulation
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Travel Rule states: Exchanges and Bitcoin service providers are being forced to document and share more information about their customers’ transactions.We see politicians like Elizabeth Warren openly oppose bitcoinand foresee a future battle on this, even if the Digital Assets AML Act she proposed isn’t actually likely to be passed.
On the other hand, however, the government Initially opposed to Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) technology (e.g. Skype), and today they use VoIPSome countries have adopted it as legal tender, holding bitcoin as reserves, providing bitcoin services to citizens, and encouraging bitcoin investors and entrepreneurs.
CBDC and cash war
War over cash income, many countries are taking high denomination banknotes out of circulationAlso Prohibition of physical cash transactions above thresholdThere are many countries talking about central bank digital currency (CBDC) trials, but my guess is that most of them have the technical and overall economic stamina to launch a fully functioning CBDC in 2023. do not have the capacity to
2023 will be mostly about exams and rhetoric in preparation for future CBDC rollouts. There is an understanding that “if you want a welfare check, consider it a CBDC”. Like Darth Vader in “Star Wars”, it will be a case of “please don’t change the contract any more”.
Once upon a time, CBDC may have been considered a “conspiracy theory,” but it is now emerging as a threat to financial freedom and privacy. Sadly, most people won’t realize the threat until it’s too late and he has CBDC. But CBDC woes will drive more people to use Bitcoin and the Lightning Network.
Maxis is minted, reviving interest in self-custody
Bitcoin maximalist Casual “Crypto” fans, Celsius, block phi, FTX, Voyager, boldSo cyclical in some ways, the 2014-2015 bear cycle followed the collapse of Mt Gox, and the 2018-2019 bear cycle Quadriga CX —so you’re just going through another round of people having to learn the hard way.
2023 will see a stronger culture of self-management, given that the pain of 2022 is more recent. This does not rule out future cycles or waves of new hires of people who are not careful. Yield and shitcoin scams will sooner or later reappear in different forms, but it will be a new round of giving in to them.
More content and webinars related to self-management. For example, using Swan Bitcoin, I have hosted several. Self Custody 101 Webinar (This is ongoing), these webinars had the highest interest and registration. Any Swan webinars offered so far. Offering easy auto-withdrawal functionality or being 100% non-custodial will be key features for the 2023 Bitcoin onramp.
Miniscript wallet and features
Around Peter Wille’s site:
“Miniscript is a language for writing (a subset of) Bitcoin scripts in a structured way, allowing for analysis, composition, common signatures, etc.”
For those unfamiliar, Miniscript is an easier way to express Bitcoin’s various scripts and spending terms. This can be incorporated into different wallets in a way that facilitates cross-hardware and software compatibility.
At first, you may be wondering, “Why should I care?”And at first, you would be right to ask that. But over time, this will allow for more sophisticated self-custody, enterprise and even estate planning scenarios.After 90 days Do you want a 3/3 multisig setup that degrades to a 2/3 multisig setup? Or are there various “back out” conditions that exist in your business context? Easier It does these things and allows people to use existing software or hardware for this purpose. To be clear, some of this is already possible with Bitcoin scripts today, but Miniscript is more technically feasible or easier to achieve in practice.
These solutions will take time to build, but the features look promising. Businesses and business customers may be particularly interested in this. This may make self-custody practices performed by employees and key owners more practical.
Current, Liana (by the same team behind Revault), and ledgerannounced support for Miniscript in hardware. Specter DIY already enabled support for 2021! Rob Hamilton also talks about the use of Miniscript in the world of insurance. HereWe expect more support to come in 2023.
This will help push Bitcoin usage in the direction of self-management, either respecting the words of governments, banks, and statutory institutions, or asking governments, banks, and statutory institutions to avoid hurting wealth. It could help move us away from the “old model” of financial services that we have to rely on more.
Lightning fast
It’s time to introduce the Lightning First model to two types of Bitcoin transactions: microtransactions and face-to-face commerce.we saw mempoolfullRBF discussion It will blow up towards the end of 2022, but the real answer for most of us is to promote and use Lightning first when possible.
As a quick anecdote, I recall talking to Giacomo Zucco, who described his experience in El Salvador of paying with bitcoin in supermarkets. Unfortunately, his Chivo terminal at the time defaulted to on-chain bitcoin, and when he made a payment on-chain, people in line behind him had to wait for confirmation. , was very clumsy.Contrast this to a Lightning-first experience like this:
We should show people how good Bitcoin is, and for face-to-face low-value commerce, Lightning should be the first choice. In 2023, we expect this to be driven and encouraged by more Bitcoin users and local communities.
Expanding Bitcoin-only community and events
More events and smaller conferences will be held in different countries around the world. The problem is assuming you have to attend every one, as opposed to some people who believe there are too many Bitcoin meetings!
Instead, you should attend events and conferences that match your interests and geography. More meetings are a good thing, as long as they are held in a low-cost and effective manner. for example, Bitcoin Bush Bash is a model that can be replicated around the world. Free to attend, small gatherings held in halls or other free/cheap areas, no recording, cost-effective locations.
By lowering expectations for things that usually cost more (e.g. elaborate professional operations, live streaming, lots of international speakers), bitcoiners can grow the local scene and meetups. I can do it. This does not detract from large Bitcoin events and conferences. Because they also play an important role. However, I believe there is a “compromise” that low-cost local events can pick up.
overall feeling
Without the crystal ball in 2023, I believe the Bitcoin fiat price will remain largely flat. Forget what the bullhopium people are posting and talking about. They’re usually either pursuing engagement or getting too caught up in their own echo chamber.
But let’s look at the bright side. It’s the perfect time to lay the groundwork and build something. In previous cycles, it wasn’t so clear that “Bitcoin is back”, but now the world is slowly realizing that Bitcoin is here to stay.
This is a guest post by Stephan Livera. Opinions expressed are entirely his own and do not necessarily reflect those of his BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
