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Morning Bid: Wild oil ride amid China and crypto woe

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Future outlook for US and global markets by Mike Dolan.

With the oil turmoil, China’s COVID crunch and cryptocurrency unraveling, investors are beginning to analyze what looks like next year’s recession, making for uncomfortable reading.

Rising interest rates and a slowing economy dominate the 2023 outlook. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

The Paris-based OECD expects the global economy as a whole to avoid a full recession, but expects global growth to slow to 2.2% next year from 3.1% in 2022, with the UK and Germany economy is likely to contract in 2023.

Underscoring the dark clouds for growth, China’s fight against COVID and its growing suppression seemed only to get worse. Beijing closes parks, shopping malls and museums Meanwhile, China reported new infections near its peak in April, prompting more cities to resume mass testing for COVID-19.

The Hong Kong stock market was hit hard again, but falling global markets were more resilient on Tuesday as oil prices, pushed down by China’s woes and fears of a global recession, went on a violent roller coaster ride over the past 24 hours. got complicated.

Brent crude plunged more than 5% to a 10-month low of $82 a barrel at some point late Monday amid reports OPEC was considering raising output. rice field.However Saudi denial has since seen all those losses recouped And today it initially hovered around $88.

The US dollar has also recovered some of Monday’s sharp rise. Mary Daly of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Board on Monday drew more cautious caution about the Fed’s tightening, saying the real-world impact of a US central bank rate hike is likely to be greater than what the short-term interest rate target implies.

Many investors fear the fallout of the FTX exchange is just beginning, and the pain in the crypto world continues.

Bitcoin, which has fallen about 80% over the past year, fell to a two-year low of $15,481 late Monday. Analysts estimate that more than 55% of all funds ever invested in major cryptocurrencies are currently submerged.

Investigation, followed by accusations and lawsuits across the crypto sector.cryptocurrency lenders Genesis On Monday, days after FTX’s failure forced it to suspend customer redemptions, it said it had no immediate plans to file for bankruptcy.

Another concern for those in the space was the growing number of lawsuits against FTX’s failed sponsors and advertisers. The blow has been made that many celebrities, sports teams and corporate advertisers have dabbled in cryptocurrencies.

of golden state warriors The reigning National Basketball Association champion was sued Monday by FTX customers for falsely promoting the now-bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange. Also, American football star Tom Brady was under investigation by Texas regulators, according to a Bloomberg news reporter.

in corporate news Baidu’s Third-quarter earnings beat expectations as the Chinese search engine giant benefited from a recovery in online advertising sales and growth in its cloud and artificial intelligence businesses.

Key developments that could give direction to US markets later Tuesday:

* Philadelphia Federal Reserve November Nonmanufacturing Business Survey, Richmond Fed November Business Survey, Eurozone November Consumer Confidence

* Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, St. Louis Fed President Bullard and Kansas City Fed President Esther George.

* U.S. Company Earnings: Analog Devices, HP, Dollar Tree, Autodesk

* The US Treasury sells 7-year notes and 2-year floating notes.

Reuters Graphics
Reuters Graphics
Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics

By Mike Dolan, Alexandra Hudson mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com Edited by. Twitter: @reutersMikeD

Our criteria: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect Reuters News’ commitment to integrity, independence and freedom from bias under its Trust Principles.

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